The Ukrainian Border

Offensive or defensive? Interpreting Russia’s military build-up near the Ukrainian border

The international community was alarmed when, in the beginning of April, Russia started amassing its armed forces near the Ukrainian border. Many in the West expressed fear that such large-scale military build-up could potentially lead to a Russian offensive and a spill-over of the seven-year conflict from the Kremlin-controlled eastern Ukraine to other parts of the country. Anders Aslund, Senior Fellow of the Atlantic Council and former professor at CERES, assessed concentration of forces as “particularly serious,” maintaining that “Putin certainly has good reasons to opt for a military offensive. Crucially, he faces Duma elections in September, and his favorite electoral tactic is to manufacture a small, victorious war.” By contrast, Andrei Kortunov, head of the Russian International Affairs Council, stated that Moscow’s actions resembled more like a deterrence than an offensive, which followed Kyiv’s own reinforcements in eastern Ukraine. 

One way or another, soon after the military build-up, President Joe Biden made a long-awaited phone call to his Ukrainian colleague Volodymyr Zelensky, during which he reaffirmed “the United State’s unwavering support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in the face of Russia’s ongoing aggression in the Donbass and Crimea.” Biden had his next phone call with Vladimir Putin, urging him to “de-escalate tensions” in Ukraine. Following this conversation, on April 15, Washington imposed new sanctions against Moscow. According to the statement issued by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, sanctions resulted from Russia’s alleged interference in the 2020 presidential elections, as well as its illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014. In the wake of the U.S. sanctions, in order to reduce the tension near the Ukrainian border, President Zelensky urged Putin to meet “at any location of Ukraine’s conflict-hit Donbass” to which Putin responded affirmatively. However, instead of Donbass, the Russian leader invited Zelensky to Moscow “at any time convenient for him” to discuss possibilities of “developing the bilateral ties” between the two countries. 

Coincidentally, towards the end of April, soon after the exchange of invitations between Zelensky and Putin, Moscow announced that it had started withdrawing its armed forces from the Ukrainian border. Sergei Shoigu, Russian Defense Minister, highlighted that the troop pullback had not been influenced by the U.S. sanctions, in particular, and Western pressure, in general, adding that Russia would continue taking any measures necessary to defend itself. This sentiment was shared by Zelensky himself, who claimed that the withdrawal of the Russian army did not mean that Ukraine “should not be ready for the possible return of troops to the borders of our country at any moment.” 

Indeed, according to Russia’s Interior Ministry, throughout the past two years, more than 527,000 people in Donbass, eastern Ukraine, have been granted Russian citizenship following Putin’s order issued in 2019 to simplify the process of obtaining Russian citizenship for residents of this conflict zone. And considering the fact that Moscow has emphasized numerously that it will defend its citizens regardless of their country of residence, more than half a million people with Russian passports in eastern Ukraine can constitute a possible threat to Kyiv. It is true that, currently, the tension has been de-escalated, but the real question is – how long will this respite last? 

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Prepared by Tina Dolbaia, May 2021

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References:

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Lee, M., Casert, R. & Madhani, A. (2021, April 13). Biden raises concerns with Putin about Ukraine confrontation. AP News. Retrieved from: https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-politics-ukraine-vladimir-putin-russia-3a29fb722f9725314495dbaf90b32252

Putin ready to discuss Russia-Ukraine ties in Moscow anytime (2021, April 22). TASS. Retrieved April 27, 2021, from: https://tass.com/politics/1281847

Rainsford, S. (2021, April 15). Why Russia may not be planning the invasion that Ukraine fears. BBC. Retrieved from: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56746144

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Turak, N. & Macias, A. (2021, April 15). Biden administration slaps new sanctions on Russia for cyberattacks, election interference. CNBC. Retrieved from: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/15/biden-administration-sanctions-russia-for-cyber-attacks-election-interference.html

Ukrainian president invites Putin to meet in Donbass (2021, April 20). TASS. Retrieved April 27, 2021, from: https://tass.com/world/1280657

Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the positions of the Ukrainian military on the administrative border with the temporarily occupied Crimea (2021, April 27). Official Website of President of Ukraine. Retrieved April 29, 2021, from: https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/volodimir-zelenskij-pobuvav-na-poziciyah-ukrayinskih-vijskov-68169

Zelenskiy Warns That Russian Troops Can Return At ‘Any Moment’ (2021, April 27). Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. Retrieved April 29, 2021, from: https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-zelenskiy-warns-russia-return-border-tensions/31226097.html