Kyrgyzstan’s 2021 Presidential Election
Changing of the Guard: Electoral Aftermath of the 2020 Kyrgyzstan Protests
Our previous review of Kyrgyzstan’s 2020 parliamentary elections concluded with Sadyr Japarov, a nationalist freed from prison during the October protests, serving as prime minister and president. In response to the protests, early presidential elections and a constitutional referendum on adopting a presidential system were scheduled for January 10, 2021. Since then, Japarov resigned from his positions on Nov 14 to run according to constitutional law, which forbids caretaker leaders from running in the elections they oversee. The role of prime minister was left to Artem Novikov, while Japarov left the role of acting president to Parliament Speaker Talant Mamytov.
Widely viewed as the only viable presidential contender of 19 approved candidates, Japarov’s campaign stressed diminishing the power of the parliament, represented as a relic of a failed system that served only the Russian-speaking elites. Hailing from a rural area and promising to revive symbols of Kyrgyz pride, including a Kurultai of the Khan-era sort, Japarov’s campaign was most popular with migrant workers and regions outside the main cities. Conversely, his greatest source of opposition hailed from urban areas, wary of the projected increase of presidential strength and the new draft constitution’s omission of civil liberties protections.
Japarov, owing to an outsized level of funding compared to his opponents, went on to win the presidency in the January 10 elections, securing an estimated 80 percent of the vote. Although turnout was around 40 percent, those that voted demonstrated a strong affinity for nationalist politics, as the second-place candidate, Adakhan Madumarov, also leads a nationalist party. The constitutional referendum also saw support for shifting to a presidential system win 84 percent of the vote, with support strongest in Issyk-Kul and weakest in Bishkek. Despite an apparent mandate from the electorate favoring Kyrgyzstan policies, Japarov has already underscored his intentions to respect the strategic partnership the country currently enjoys with Russia.
The intensity and longevity of this shift towards a presidential system and its implications for civil society are yet to be fully understood, but the implementation of Japarov’s platform is one worth observing in the near term.
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Prepared by Michael Robinson on 9th February 2021
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