On Friday, November 13, Dr. Sergey Markedonov, Leading Researcher at the MGIMO Institute for International Studies and Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of International Analytics, delivered a lecture via Zoom to the CEES community on the rapidly changing realities in the latest phase of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The event, titled “The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict: escalating violence and security risks”, underscored tensions between the principles of self-determination and territorial integrity as key inhibitors to a peaceful resolution to the conflict and the globalization of an erstwhile ethnic conflict. Dr. Markedonov also discussed the implications of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict for great-power confrontations, the status of other frozen conflicts, and the emergence of new international engagements and alignments. To watch the event in full, go to our YouTube channel. Read a summary of the event below:
Dr. Markedonov noted that a significant aspect of the recent offensive by Azerbaijan into Nagorno-Karabakh and its surrounding territories was the dramatic shift in the status quo, with Armenian occupation of the latter coming to an abrupt halt. Fundamentally, this shifted the balance of power in favor of Azerbaijan, and also had some effect in separating the issue of Karabakh from that of the formerly Azeri-majority territories. More broadly, however, is the shift of the conflict towards a highly international character. Once unique for lacking peacekeepers and having limited external involvement, the presence of Russian peacekeepers, Iran’s embrace of them, Turkey’s assertive use of hard power and proxies, and even French participation in the region’s affairs all underscore the conflict’s outcome becoming increasingly defined by external action. While the core issues of the ultimate relationship between majority-Armenian Nagorno-Karabakh and its parent state are far from settled, Markedonov highlights the ways that the conflict could either progress towards settlement or, as Russo-Turkish rivalry becomes more likely, confrontation. These issues and others are more thoroughly examined by watching a recording of the event here.